[50NL] KK...3bet pot facing turn jam 5n4rx

Villain is 21/18/4 over 200 hands. FT3B 88%, 7/8. FTCB 50%.

PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $52.25
CO: $51.50
BTN: $193.77
SB: $55.60
Hero (BB): $50.00

SB posts SB $0.25, Hero posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has K K

UTG raises to $1.50, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $5.25, UTG calls $3.75

Flop: ($10.75, 2 players) 9 T 2
Hero bets $6.25, UTG raises to $13.50, Hero calls $7.25

Turn: ($37.75, 2 players) 7
Hero checks, UTG bets $33.50 and is all-in, Hero ???

Think this is pretty close here. If villain has 99+, we have 47%, if we add in AKdd, AQdd and QJdd it's pretty much 50/50.

www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Td2d9h7s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 49.59% 47.81% 1.79% { 99+, AdKd, AdQd, QdJd }
BB 50.41% 48.62% 1.79% { KhKs }

Villain seems pretty tight though, and he has a chance to see a free turn card if he wants so I'm not sure if he jams w/ his FD's. If he jams w/ 99+ to protect against any draws I may have, we're slightly behind.

Thoughts?

If we have 47% equity how is it close when we need like 33%

I dunno why villain would do this with QQ or JJ though.

Yeah it's more a question of villains range, rather than whether I should call.

Should have made that clearer really.

I think you gotta call here. Even if he has AKdd, 99/TT and two combos of QQ only, this is a call.

I think a good exercise to do in spots like this is to stove your equity vs hands you KNOW will play like this. Then add hands that might play like this and see how many combos of those you need to make a call.

I think AKdd, 99, TT very likely play like this.

Of the remaining possible "might play like this" we have QQ (6), JJ (6), AQdd (1), KQdd (1), QJdd (1) - total 15 total combos.
We only need two combos of QQ of all these "might" combos, so I think that's a reasonably likely assumption.

are we better reraising flop . AA is likely 4betting pre and we are blocking AK so probably only worried about him having 99,TT and a flush draw. We aren't gonna be that happy seeing a J or Q on the turn

I think that you had to re-raise/all-in on the flop. Maybe the villain has TT or 99, but it's hard to throw away KK. If I was on your place I will go fold, because $33.50 is to much money to risk. However, the best decission for me would be if you re-raise/go all-in on the flop.

Vs this villain i think it's a fold flop

I think you're only ever going to see AA/99/TT/AKdd here, unless you have reason to believe this guy is tilting.

Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

I think you're only ever going to see AA/99/TT/AKdd here, unless you have reason to believe this guy is tilting.

That's interesting, I'm not sure how often villain has AA given I 3bet his EP raise from the blinds, my range should be pretty strong here. Are you advocating a fold?

snap call nh when you don't 3b flop vs that sizing you rep the flush draw hard enough that he's turn shoving JJ and QQ here all day.

This villain has only sets here. Not a big sample, but tight enough to let this go on flop raise. If this villains isnt one to fold vd him, then we are never folding QQ+/AKdd vs anyone in similar spots.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

This villain has only sets here. Not a big sample, but tight enough to let this go on flop raise. If this villains isnt one to fold vd him, then we are never folding QQ+/AKdd vs anyone in similar spots.

Yes this is correct... it's a 3b pot and we are never folding QQ+/AKdd on this board. I don't see this as a problem though? Presumably you think it's a problem because you're continuing with your entire range then? If that's the case that just means you need to show up with more bluffs 3b pre-flop, so you have a legitimate fold range.

Are you not like at the top of your range here? Assuming T9 isn't in your 3bet bluff range preflop. If your range is essentially overpairs and FD's after the flop action and villain thinks he has decent fold equity with a shove, I'd say there's a good chance he's jamming all his FD's and sets and not his JJ-QQ.

Oh yeah congrats on making 50NL btw, I hope to follow in your footsteps.

Originally Posted by seven-deuce

Oh yeah congrats on making 50NL btw, I hope to follow in your footsteps.

Thanks mate. I way back when I was 1-tabling 2NL and you were sweating with me teaching me what the fuck to do haha.

I think villians position when 3bet comes into effect aswell, I think he flats a smidge wider pre here since he will have position in a 3bet pot. his F23B is really high hes only flatting like 2.2-2.4% of his opening range. with a range of 88+,excluding AA and KK (we assume he would 4bet?? right?) that's well equilab froze so idk but I think were ahead enough to def. call flop. but on turn idk, he basically minraised flop which setup stacks for his turn shove. I think vil. knew he wanted to play for stacks OTF in which case I think we can narrow his range to to sets and AdKd. I mean guy folds to 3bets 88% and your giving him QJdd and AQdd?? I don't think that's plausible here. turn is fold.

clear 3-bet flop without Kd, clear call on turn

as to your pokerstove, you should give him JJ approximately never, this will be QQ sometimes, a set a lot, and the nut flush draw a lot.

Originally Posted by daven

snap call nh when you don't 3b flop vs that sizing you rep the flush draw hard enough that he's turn shoving JJ and QQ here all day.

exactly what I was thinking. its not a snap call but folding seems like giving money away too..

I find it funny that I replied already with a totally different answer this time..lol