100z 3bet pot co v sb - what should our range look like on river? h7271

Okay so in this hand, I'm not sure of a few things

A) how often people really take this line as a bluff
B1) where I am in my range
B2) what I should be checking back on the turn

My reasoning for checking the turn is we keep all dominated Kx and Ax in the hand, additionally, we get to showdown vs any worse hand that does not bet the river, and for betting the turn if I'd rather have AJ, KQ/KJ with hearts and flush draws for my bluff/semibluff range. I don't really have many value betting hands on the turn so adding AK just makes my range really weird and given the previous points its too strong to start bluffing.

I think I want to be checking Tx mostly on the turn, because betting it always means I have to pay off JJ+ that takes the c/bomb line, and I want to be able to get AQ to showdown without putting any bets in. I think an exception to this is AT, given we block AA (most likely hand to c/bomb??) and dominate KT, QT, JT, T9, T8(if villain is frisky preflop)

I think we should probably call AK *sometimes* - but if thats the case, then this AK must be the worst given we block bluff hands villain would have bet on the flop (AsXx and KhXh)

Against the pool I am inclined to believe this is always a fold from an exploitative point of view because people 1) don't bluff this sizing ever 2) don't bluff this line ever, unless they are a good thinking player (probably more of the pool at 1/2+)

Our range looks like 55,77,88,99 some Tx, some AQ some AK. Agree/disagree?

paired hands total 6+6+6+6 + [ T9s(3) JTs (3) QTs (3) KTs (3?) = 12 ] = 36
unpaired overcards AQ w/ a spade (6) AK (8) - - - AK discounted to for 4betting sometimes - - - 14

I'm open to any critique on how I arrived at this range. What do you guys think?

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.casinowinning.net/

Button ($42.97)
SB ($103.71)
BB ($154.85)
UTG ($105.95)
MP ($166.95)
Hero (CO) ($185.38)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, K
2 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, 1 fold, SB raises to $9, 1 fold, Hero calls $6.50

Flop: ($19) 2, 10, 3 (2 players)
SB bets $10.50, Hero calls $10.50

Turn: ($40) 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($40) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $25.50

Yes I agree, this looks like an easy fold against the average opponent at 100nl. I'll leave proper technical analysis to other posters eg. Renton, as they could analyse this situation much better than I could.

First of all, you probably need to 4-bet this hand pre a large majority of the time, depending on the opponent. He is likely 3-betting his entire VPIP range from the small blind, which is usually too wide of a range, and you need to punish that by 4-betting a wide range. AKo is basically the hand that is most likely to improve its EV drastically over calling by 4-betting, and 4-betting it allows you to 4-bet an additional 12 to 18 combos of bluff in a balanced range.

As for the turn, it's probably not a bad play to bet an extremely wide (>75%) range for 13-14 dollars and turn your river value betting range into an (slight) over-bet shove. T high is a lower than average board, and it means that a lot of your decent hands wouldn't mind betting for protection. He is likely over-cbetting this board so he probably just has a ton of KQ-type hands that have no intention of putting money in the pot after the flop bet is called. This means those hands are essentially free-rolling your range for six outs. Such a strategy would benefit hands like AsK because a) you can fold out chops, b) you get protection vs his 3-6 out freeroll hands, and c) your As is well-suited to bluff jam on spade rivers.

That said, I think most people here just bet a polarized range for a bigger size and check back a lot of tens, AK, and most AQ. On the river he should technically be betting all of his ~QT+ in a balanced range with as many of his airballs as possible. I highly doubt AK is ever a call vs that range since it blocks many of those airballs and is just too low in your range to need calling. You have all manner of pairs to defend vs this bet with, though in practice I would fold everything below Tx strength because I expect people aren't bluffing with this line nearly as often as they should be. Your range looks like AQ Tx 99 88 77 pretty much. I think calling all the way down to 55 on the flop would be spewy, and I would fold 77 no spade to the cbet as well. You also can probably bet a handful of vulnerable made hands on the turn for protection, hands such as 99. It can be worthwhile to allow a few poor-playability hands like 99 to "hide" behind your un-capped turn betting range. Doing so makes you tougher to play against because your range will be less weak when you check behind, and the 99 can fill a bluff role on rivers that nut too many hands in your range, such as the Js, where otherwise you might not have enough bluffs.

Thanks for the detailed response, Renton.

Would you rather flat AK vs the BB then? People are just so tight 3betting BB v CO, I can't the last time someone 3bet AQ against me. I see your point though vs the SB and will take this into consideration next session.

Regarding protecting betting is this something you'd do mostly in a 3bet pot on any board that is Txx,x or lower?

I think it would really make sense for villain to cbet small w/ most of his range on these textures and can get away with it due to having a range advantage - he will deny us realizing equity with a lot of our weak hands that have a few outs and make it difficult for us to get to SD. Most people play more polar though in practice it seems and rely on what is close to geometric sizing, though as proven in MOP it is how you maximize value with the nuts (a small portion of most ranges)

as mentioned, this particular AK is a really bad one on this runout as we block a good chunk of his flop bluffing range.

agree that this is rarely a bluff and we certainly have more hands that can defend than this, although the fact that we could be better a lot of those on the turn is compelling.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

Thanks for the detailed response, Renton.

Would you rather flat AK vs the BB then? People are just so tight 3betting BB v CO, I can't the last time someone 3bet AQ against me. I see your point though vs the SB and will take this into consideration next session.

Regarding protecting betting is this something you'd do mostly in a 3bet pot on any board that is Txx,x or lower?

I think it would really make sense for villain to cbet small w/ most of his range on these textures and can get away with it due to having a range advantage - he will deny us realizing equity with a lot of our weak hands that have a few outs and make it difficult for us to get to SD. Most people play more polar though in practice it seems and rely on what is close to geometric sizing, though as proven in MOP it is how you maximize value with the nuts (a small portion of most ranges)

Yes, vs the BB it is much more of a flat, but I would still 4-bet a decent amount.

Protection betting is something that always has value but often comes at costs that aren't worth paying. I think this is a situation where the costs are pretty negligible: he's unlikely to have a substantial check raising range, and our bet size will be small enough anyway that its not that big of a deal when we get check/raised. As you say, it makes sense for villain to cbet small and get away with it due to having a range advantage. Well the tables are turned now and we can bet small for the same reason. The truth is that hands like 77-JT strength really really would like to make a small bet here. Being able to bet small with those hands might have so much value to you that its worth giving up a little bit of value with big hands.

I'm not sure I agree with the geometric sizing being proven to be best for nutted hands. TMOP was only able to make that statement about static equity games, it is much more likely that dynamic equity skews betsizing in real poker. I mean if you could magically have a range of only TT and be assured that no spade would ever roll off, then yeah geometric is probably correct, but you have other hands than TT in your range, and no hand is invulnerable to outdraw on this board.

How many pockets are you calling pre? I'm assuming you are taking the same line with those? (77-99)?

What are you doing with FD's on the turn? A4s/A5s on the turn?

folding 22-44 probably, JJ+ 4betting, TT is kind of on the fence.

Will be taking the same line with those hands. A4-5s I'd prefer 4betting preflop. I think we should probably check some flush draw combos on the turn yeah?

Are you floating flop with KQ/AJ/AQ type stuff and taking this line?

I'm trying to get a sense of where AK falls, amidst your range. Sounds like you have very few pairs taking this line. You maybe have 9Ts/JTs (~4), perhaps some 99 (~3)? Some TT (~2). Some FDs (~10), AK (~10), and maybe even AQ/AJ (~5). (assumptions are discounting based on frequency of taking this particular line)

Total combos getting to river like this ~ 34 combos.
Need to call with top 61% for GTO - so top 20-21 combos.
This would include TT (2), 99 (3), Tx (4) - and yah appears like most/alll AK should be calling for appropriate defense.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Total combos getting to river like this ~ 34 combos.
Need to call with top 61% for GTO - so top 20-21 combos.
This would include TT (2), 99 (3), Tx (4) - and yah appears like most/alll AK should be calling for appropriate defense.

Can you elaborate on this a little bit more? Why 61% of our range?